Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Lacerda vs Willie Gates

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record12-13-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
70"Reach39,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamPinnacle MMA

What's at stake

Daniel Lacerda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Willie Gates carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel LacerdaNow 1507
If they win+14→ 1521
If they lose-18→ 1489
Willie GatesNow 1466
If they win+13→ 1479
If they lose-11→ 1455

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
46%
Strike accuracy
39%
8.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.28
35%
Strike defense
39%
2.32
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
68%
1.16
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Daniel LacerdaWillie Gates
145015001550202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
7 (58%)
Submission
4 (33%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Lacerda72%
Willie Gates 28%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Lacerda a 72% favorite over Willie Gates in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Daniel Lacerda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1507 to 1466, a 41-point edge.

Willie Gates enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

Daniel Lacerda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Willie Gates 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.