Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Marcos vs TJ Dillashaw

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-1-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
69"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Los Perros SarnososTeamThe Treigning Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel MarcosNow 1767
If they win+16→ 1783
If they lose-16→ 1751
TJ DillashawNow 1763
If they win+16→ 1779
If they lose-16→ 1747

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.11
Sig. strikes / min
5.09
54%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.47
62%
Strike defense
62%
0.99
Takedown avg.
1.56
46%
Takedown accuracy
31%
85%
Takedown defense
78%
0
Submission avg.
0.82

Trajectory

Daniel MarcosTJ Dillashaw
175018002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
1 (6%)
Submission
3 (18%)
9 (50%)
Decision
6 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Marcos75%
TJ Dillashaw 25%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Marcos a 75% favorite over TJ Dillashaw in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1767 vs 1763), separated by just 4 points.

Daniel Marcos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.

Daniel Marcos carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.