Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Santos vs Hatsu Hioki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-3-0Record29-12-2
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
67"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamAlive

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel SantosNow 1643
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627
Hatsu HiokiNow 1640
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.76
Sig. strikes / min
2.42
41%
Strike accuracy
42%
5.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.12
51%
Strike defense
66%
3.01
Takedown avg.
2.55
40%
Takedown accuracy
57%
73%
Takedown defense
54%
0
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Daniel SantosHatsu Hioki
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (17%)
2 (14%)
Submission
12 (41%)
5 (36%)
Decision
12 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Santos71%
Hatsu Hioki 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Santos a 71% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1640), separated by just 3 points.

Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Daniel Santos finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Hatsu Hioki 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.