Combat Edge Intelligence

David Allen vs Geoff Pavey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey

Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

2-2-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'5"
-Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Roker Rough House MMATeamSensei MMA

What's at stake

Geoff Pavey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — David Allen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

David AllenNow 1469
If they win+26→ 1495
If they lose-22→ 1447
Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+22→ 1523
If they lose-26→ 1475

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

David AllenGeoff Pavey
1450150015502026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
3 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Geoff Pavey70%
David Allen 30%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 70% favorite over David Allen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Geoff Pavey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1469, a 32-point edge.

David Allen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Geoff Pavey 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.