Combat Edge Intelligence

Dean Garnett vs Louis Smolka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Louis Smolka
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Louis Smolka

“Da Last Samurai”

17-9-0BantamweightUFC

1630Solid

Tale of the tape

15-4-1Record17-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'9"
64"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team McHaleTeamTeam Oyama

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dean GarnettNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Louis SmolkaNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.69
TBD
Takedown accuracy
35%
TBD
Takedown defense
32%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.78

Trajectory

Dean GarnettLouis Smolka
1600165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
6 (40%)
Submission
7 (41%)
5 (33%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Dean Garnett63%
Louis Smolka 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dean Garnett a 63% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Louis Smolka's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1630), separated by just 3 points.

Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dean Garnett finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.

Louis Smolka carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.