Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Magomed Umalatov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record18-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamEagles MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+12→ 1786
If they lose-12→ 1762
Magomed UmalatovNow 1779
If they win+16→ 1795
If they lose-16→ 1763

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1629 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
44%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
64%
Strike defense
TBD
2.49
Takedown avg.
TBD
25%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
62%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.99
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Demian MaiaMagomed Umalatov
17501800202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
12 (67%)
14 (50%)
Submission
2 (11%)
11 (39%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Umalatov75%
Demian Maia 25%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Umalatov a 75% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1774 vs 1779), separated by just 5 points.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Umalatov 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.