Deron Winn vs Phil Hawes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record12-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'6"Height5'11"
TBDReach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Phil Hawes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Deron Winn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1613
If they lose-15→ 1581
If they win+15→ 1638
If they lose-17→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Deron WinnPhil Hawes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Deron Winn53%
Phil Hawes 47%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Deron Winn a 53% favorite over Phil Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phil Hawes's way (46%).
Phil Hawes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1623 to 1596, a 27-point edge.
Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Deron Winn finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Phil Hawes 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.