Combat Edge Intelligence

Derrick Lewis vs Philip De Fries

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Derrick Lewis
us

Derrick Lewis

“The Black Beast”

29-14-0HeavyweightUFC

1744Good

Tale of the tape

29-14-0Record25-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight264 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Derrick LewisNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
Philip De FriesNow 1749
If they win+12→ 1761
If they lose-12→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
2.30
50%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
40%
Strike defense
38%
0.55
Takedown avg.
3.29
26%
Takedown accuracy
43%
52%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Derrick LewisPhilip De Fries
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

24 (83%)
KO/TKO
6 (24%)
1 (3%)
Submission
14 (56%)
4 (14%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Derrick Lewis57%
Philip De Fries 43%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 57% favorite over Philip De Fries in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Philip De Fries's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1749), separated by just 5 points.

Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Philip De Fries enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Philip De Fries 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.