Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Brandao vs Justin Lawrence

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-21-0Record11-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
38,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamPower MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Diego BrandaoNow 1604
If they win+12→ 1616
If they lose-12→ 1592
Justin LawrenceNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
3.96
48%
Strike accuracy
35%
3.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.43
62%
Strike defense
68%
3.21
Takedown avg.
1.38
68%
Takedown accuracy
29%
81%
Takedown defense
73%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Diego BrandaoJustin Lawrence
155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

16 (55%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
6 (21%)
Submission
1 (9%)
7 (24%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Lawrence70%
Diego Brandao 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Lawrence a 70% favorite over Diego Brandao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1605), separated by just 1 points.

Diego Brandao enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Diego Brandao finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Justin Lawrence 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.