Diego Ferreira vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
74"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1738
If they lose-12→ 1714
If they win+16→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1745 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego FerreiraTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan71%
Diego Ferreira 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 71% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Diego Ferreira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1726 vs 1726), separated by just 0 points.
Diego Ferreira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Diego Ferreira finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.