Diego Saraiva vs Áureo Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-20-1Record3-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
TBDReach63"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team OctopusTeamNew Generation MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1564
If they lose-12→ 1540
If they win+24→ 1573
If they lose-24→ 1525
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego SaraivaÁureo Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Áureo Cruz70%
Diego Saraiva 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Áureo Cruz a 70% favorite over Diego Saraiva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Diego Saraiva's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1552 vs 1549), separated by just 3 points.
Diego Saraiva enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Diego Saraiva finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Áureo Cruz 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.