Diyar Nurgozhay vs Renato Sobral
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record37-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tobet Top TeamTeamBabalu's Iron Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667
If they win+12→ 1699
If they lose-12→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diyar NurgozhayRenato Sobral
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diyar Nurgozhay70%
Renato Sobral 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Diyar Nurgozhay a 70% favorite over Renato Sobral in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Renato Sobral's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1687), separated by just 4 points.
Renato Sobral enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Diyar Nurgozhay finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Renato Sobral 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.