Combat Edge Intelligence

Dmitrii Ceacusta vs Maiquel Falcao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record39-21-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight202 lbs
TBDTeamRasthai Temple

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dmitrii CeacustaNow 1525
If they win+24→ 1549
If they lose-24→ 1501
Maiquel FalcaoNow 1528
If they win+12→ 1540
If they lose-12→ 1516

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
56%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.53
TBD
Strike defense
87%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
71%
TBD
Submission avg.
3

Trajectory

Dmitrii CeacustaMaiquel Falcao
1550160020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
27 (69%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (13%)
0 (0%)
Decision
7 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Dmitrii Ceacusta79%
Maiquel Falcao 21%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dmitrii Ceacusta a 79% favorite over Maiquel Falcao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Maiquel Falcao's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1525 vs 1528), separated by just 3 points.

Maiquel Falcao enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Maiquel Falcao 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.