Combat Edge Intelligence

Dmitrii Smoliakov vs Matheus Scheffel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record17-11-0
TBDDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'2"
44.00ReachTBD
TBDWeight262 lbs
TBDTeamCM System

What's at stake

Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dmitrii Smoliakov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dmitrii SmoliakovNow 1455
If they win+29→ 1484
If they lose-19→ 1436
Matheus ScheffelNow 1521
If they win+10→ 1531
If they lose-14→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1541 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.44
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
43%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
56%
Strike defense
47%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
75%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dmitrii SmoliakovMatheus Scheffel
1450150015501600201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
12 (71%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Matheus Scheffel58%
Dmitrii Smoliakov 42%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 58% favorite over Dmitrii Smoliakov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1455, a 66-point edge.

Dmitrii Smoliakov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.