Donald Cerrone vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
73"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz52%
Donald Cerrone 48%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 52% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Donald Cerrone's way (45%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1674, a 36-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz share 5 common opponents: Anthony Pettis, Conor McGregor, Tony Ferguson and Mike Perry, among 5 in total.
Nate Diaz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.