Combat Edge Intelligence

Donte Johnson vs Roger Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-0-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'4"
74"ReachTBD
209 lbsWeight186 lbs
Titletown MMATeamEvolve MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Donte JohnsonNow 1681
If they win+24→ 1705
If they lose-24→ 1657
Roger GracieNow 1681
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1516 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.34
Sig. strikes / min
0.80
64%
Strike accuracy
41%
1.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.73
59%
Strike defense
61%
6.01
Takedown avg.
2
100%
Takedown accuracy
50%
80%
Takedown defense
60%
2
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Donte JohnsonRoger Gracie
15501600165017002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
1 (13%)
Submission
6 (75%)
1 (13%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Donte Johnson72%
Roger Gracie 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Donte Johnson a 72% favorite over Roger Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1681), separated by just 0 points.

Donte Johnson enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Roger Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Donte Johnson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Roger Gracie 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.