Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Dober vs Magomed Mustafaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70″ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Drew DoberNow 1701
If they win+12→ 1713
If they lose-12→ 1689
Magomed MustafaevNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
41%
Strike accuracy
59%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
53%
Strike defense
41%
0.63
Takedown avg.
3.31
17%
Takedown accuracy
50%
58%
Takedown defense
23%
0.07
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Drew DoberMagomed Mustafaev
17002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (59%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
5 (17%)
Submission
4 (29%)
7 (24%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Drew Dober62%
Magomed Mustafaev 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 62% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1701 vs 1699), separated by just 2 points.

Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.