Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Dober vs Tofiq Musayev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record23-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70″Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamOrion Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Drew DoberNow 1701
If they win+12→ 1713
If they lose-12→ 1689
Tofiq MusayevNow 1706
If they win+16→ 1722
If they lose-16→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
1.84
41%
Strike accuracy
46%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.74
53%
Strike defense
51%
0.63
Takedown avg.
2.30
17%
Takedown accuracy
60%
58%
Takedown defense
50%
0.07
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Drew DoberTofiq Musayev
1700202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (59%)
KO/TKO
18 (78%)
5 (17%)
Submission
2 (9%)
7 (24%)
Decision
3 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Tofiq Musayev56%
Drew Dober 44%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Tofiq Musayev a 56% favorite over Drew Dober in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1701 vs 1706), separated by just 5 points.

Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Tofiq Musayev 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.