Combat Edge Intelligence

Duško Todorović vs Phil Hawes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Phil Hawes
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Phil Hawes

“No Hype”

12-6-0MiddleweightUFC

1623Solid

Tale of the tape

13-6-0Record12-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
SecutorTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Duško TodorovićNow 1621
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
Phil HawesNow 1623
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.73
Sig. strikes / min
5.33
58%
Strike accuracy
59%
4.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.72
48%
Strike defense
56%
1.77
Takedown avg.
2.11
21%
Takedown accuracy
35%
43%
Takedown defense
91%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.23

Trajectory

Duško TodorovićPhil Hawes
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (62%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
4 (31%)
Submission
2 (17%)
1 (8%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Duško Todorović53%
Phil Hawes 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Duško Todorović a 53% favorite over Phil Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phil Hawes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1621 vs 1623), separated by just 2 points.

Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Duško Todorović finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Phil Hawes 83%.

Phil Hawes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.