Duane Ludwig vs Will Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-14-0Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamDerby City MMA
What's at stake
Will Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Duane Ludwig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1525
If they lose-15→ 1493
If they win+23→ 1546
If they lose-25→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Duane LudwigWill Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Davis67%
Duane Ludwig 33%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Davis a 67% favorite over Duane Ludwig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Will Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1523 to 1508, a 15-point edge.
Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Duane Ludwig finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Will Davis 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.