Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Kimura vs Muin Gafurov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record20-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
TBDReach68"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamTaj-Fighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin KimuraNow 1661
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
Muin GafurovNow 1661
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.89
21%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
52%
Strike defense
53%
0.93
Takedown avg.
1.47
38%
Takedown accuracy
26%
50%
Takedown defense
70%
2.18
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dustin KimuraMuin Gafurov
1650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
10 (50%)
8 (73%)
Submission
7 (35%)
1 (9%)
Decision
3 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Muin Gafurov63%
Dustin Kimura 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Muin Gafurov a 63% favorite over Dustin Kimura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Kimura's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1661), separated by just 0 points.

Dustin Kimura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dustin Kimura finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Muin Gafurov 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.