Duško Todorović vs Murilo Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record20-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
SecutorTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
If they win+12→ 1636
If they lose-12→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Duško TodorovićMurilo Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Duško Todorović70%
Murilo Rua 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Duško Todorović a 70% favorite over Murilo Rua in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Murilo Rua's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1621 vs 1624), separated by just 3 points.
Murilo Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Duško Todorović finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Murilo Rua 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.