Combat Edge Intelligence

Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Erick Montaño

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record10-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75''Reach73"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Diesel Fighting AcademyTeamBonebreakers MMA

What's at stake

Erick Montaño is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ebrahem Mahmoud carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ebrahem MahmoudNow 1471
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Erick MontañoNow 1490
If they win+15→ 1505
If they lose-17→ 1473

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.79
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.06
TBD
Strike defense
65%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.29
TBD
Takedown accuracy
36%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ebrahem MahmoudErick Montaño
150020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (40%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Ebrahem Mahmoud66%
Erick Montaño 34%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 66% favorite over Erick Montaño in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Erick Montaño's way (47%).

Erick Montaño holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1490 to 1471, a 19-point edge.

Erick Montaño 60%.

Ebrahem Mahmoud carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.