Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Josh Rafferty
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record9-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Diesel Fighting AcademyTeamMeat Truck Inc.
What's at stake
Josh Rafferty is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ebrahem Mahmoud carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1497
If they lose-22→ 1449
If they win+15→ 1511
If they lose-17→ 1479
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ebrahem MahmoudJosh Rafferty
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ebrahem Mahmoud70%
Josh Rafferty 30%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 70% favorite over Josh Rafferty in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Rafferty's way (46%).
Josh Rafferty holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1496 to 1471, a 25-point edge.
Josh Rafferty enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Rafferty 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.