Combat Edge Intelligence

Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Karl Willis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record0-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"HeightTBD
75''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Diesel Fighting AcademyTeamFreelance

What's at stake

Ebrahem Mahmoud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Karl Willis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ebrahem MahmoudNow 1471
If they win+19→ 1490
If they lose-29→ 1442
Karl WillisNow 1392
If they win+29→ 1421
If they lose-19→ 1373

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ebrahem MahmoudKarl Willis
140014502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Combat Edge model read

Ebrahem Mahmoud72%
Karl Willis 28%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 72% favorite over Karl Willis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Ebrahem Mahmoud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1392, a 79-point edge.

Karl Willis enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.