Combat Edge Intelligence

Eddie Wineland vs Geraldo de Freitas Jr.

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-16-1Record14-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach39,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Eddie WinelandNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601
Geraldo de Freitas Jr.Now 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
29%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.62
68%
Strike defense
50%
0.34
Takedown avg.
3
33%
Takedown accuracy
45%
86%
Takedown defense
59%
0.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Eddie WinelandGeraldo de Freitas Jr.
160016502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

15 (65%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
4 (17%)
Submission
7 (50%)
4 (17%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Geraldo de Freitas Jr.58%
Eddie Wineland 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Geraldo de Freitas Jr. a 58% favorite over Eddie Wineland in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Eddie Wineland's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1613), separated by just 0 points.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Eddie Wineland finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Geraldo de Freitas Jr. 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.