Combat Edge Intelligence

Eric Wray vs Stephen Costello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record6-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight6'1"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Eric WrayNow 1532
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508
Stephen CostelloNow 1534
If they win+16→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1518

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Eric WrayStephen Costello
1500155016002005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
4 (80%)
Submission
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Costello60%
Eric Wray 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Costello a 60% favorite over Eric Wray in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1534), separated by just 2 points.

Eric Wray finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Costello 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.