Combat Edge Intelligence

Erick Maia vs Oscar Ownsworth

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record10-5-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height6'1"
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Labareda TeamTeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Erick MaiaNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581
Oscar OwnsworthNow 1598
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Erick MaiaOscar Ownsworth
1500155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
6 (67%)
Submission
3 (30%)
1 (11%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Oscar Ownsworth67%
Erick Maia 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Oscar Ownsworth a 67% favorite over Erick Maia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.

Erick Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Oscar Ownsworth enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Erick Maia finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Oscar Ownsworth 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.