Erik Koch vs Justin Burlinson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Justin Burlinson
Elo1645SolidTale of the tape
16-6-0Record8-2-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71,5"Reach41,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamThe Dungeon BJJ and MMA Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Erik KochJustin Burlinson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Burlinson66%
Erik Koch 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Burlinson a 66% favorite over Erik Koch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1645), separated by just 1 points.
Justin Burlinson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Erik Koch finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Justin Burlinson 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.