Combat Edge Intelligence

Erik Silva vs Tommy Hayden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Erik Silva
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Erik Silva

“The King”

9-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1580Solid

Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record11-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Antonio Silva Martial ArtsTeamBangkok Fight Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Erik SilvaNow 1580
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564
Tommy HaydenNow 1580
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.07
Sig. strikes / min
1.48
70%
Strike accuracy
27%
1.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
40%
Strike defense
55%
3.76
Takedown avg.
3.42
80%
Takedown accuracy
33%
63%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Erik SilvaTommy Hayden
155016002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
4 (44%)
Submission
6 (60%)
2 (22%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Erik Silva55%
Tommy Hayden 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Erik Silva a 55% favorite over Tommy Hayden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1580), separated by just 0 points.

Erik Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Erik Silva finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Hayden 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.