Ernest Chavez vs Shin Haraguchi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record8-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
146 lbsWeight146 lbs
Total MMA StudiosTeamBrave
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1663
If they lose-16→ 1631
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ernest ChavezShin Haraguchi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shin Haraguchi56%
Ernest Chavez 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shin Haraguchi a 56% favorite over Ernest Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ernest Chavez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1647 vs 1646), separated by just 1 points.
Ernest Chavez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ernest Chavez finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Shin Haraguchi 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.