Combat Edge Intelligence

Esteban Ribovics vs Tom Nolan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tom Nolan
au

Tom Nolan

“Big Train”

11-1-0LightweightUFC

1726Good

Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'2"
69"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Compton Training Centre

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Esteban RibovicsNow 1728
If they win+16→ 1744
If they lose-16→ 1712
Tom NolanNow 1726
If they win+16→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1710

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.27
Sig. strikes / min
5.87
43%
Strike accuracy
46%
5.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.73
55%
Strike defense
48%
0.35
Takedown avg.
0.74
0%
Takedown accuracy
22%
66%
Takedown defense
71%
0.17
Submission avg.
1.86

Trajectory

Esteban RibovicsTom Nolan
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
5 (33%)
Submission
1 (9%)
3 (20%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Esteban Ribovics and Tom Nolan within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1728 vs 1726), separated by just 2 points.

Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Esteban Ribovics finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.

Tom Nolan carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.