Estevan Payan vs Zak Flessas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-14-0Record3-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
148 lbsWeight145 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamWanderley Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1537
If they lose-12→ 1513
If they win+24→ 1549
If they lose-24→ 1501
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Estevan PayanZak Flessas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zak Flessas70%
Estevan Payan 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Zak Flessas a 70% favorite over Estevan Payan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Estevan Payan's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1525 vs 1525), separated by just 0 points.
Estevan Payan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Estevan Payan finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Zak Flessas 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.