Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs MarQuel Mederos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record11-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70,0"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamFactory X

What's at stake

MarQuel Mederos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
MarQuel MederosNow 1687
If they win+15→ 1702
If they lose-17→ 1670

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
4.84
39%
Strike accuracy
57%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
62%
Strike defense
58%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0
33%
Takedown accuracy
0%
80%
Takedown defense
84%
0.98
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Evan DunhamMarQuel Mederos
160016501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
6 (33%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (50%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

MarQuel Mederos73%
Evan Dunham 27%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes MarQuel Mederos a 73% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

MarQuel Mederos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1670, a 17-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.