Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Per Eklund

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record14-5-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamOrla

What's at stake

Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Per Eklund carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+10→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1656
Per EklundNow 1620
If they win+18→ 1638
If they lose-14→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.07
39%
Strike accuracy
61%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.38
62%
Strike defense
67%
1.82
Takedown avg.
2.07
33%
Takedown accuracy
11%
80%
Takedown defense
50%
0.98
Submission avg.
3.62

Trajectory

Evan DunhamPer Eklund
160016501700200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
2 (15%)
6 (33%)
Submission
7 (54%)
9 (50%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Dunham59%
Per Eklund 41%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Dunham a 59% favorite over Per Eklund in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1620, a 50-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Per Eklund enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Per Eklund 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.