Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Elder vs Lance Gibson Jr.

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Evan Elder
us

Evan Elder

“The Phenom”

10-2-0LightweightUFC

1650Good

Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nick Diaz AcademyTeamGibson Kickboxing & Pankration

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Evan ElderNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.66
Sig. strikes / min
2
51%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
57%
Strike defense
54%
0.48
Takedown avg.
2
15%
Takedown accuracy
67%
40%
Takedown defense
50%
0.48
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Evan ElderLance Gibson Jr.
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
2 (20%)
Submission
3 (30%)
4 (40%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.60%
Evan Elder 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 60% favorite over Evan Elder in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1652), separated by just 2 points.

Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Evan Elder finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lance Gibson Jr. 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.