Evan Elder vs Marcus Aurelio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nick Diaz AcademyTeamElite Mixed Fighters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
If they win+12→ 1661
If they lose-12→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan ElderMarcus Aurelio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Evan Elder70%
Marcus Aurelio 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Evan Elder a 70% favorite over Marcus Aurelio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1649), separated by just 1 points.
Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Evan Elder finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.