Combat Edge Intelligence

Farshad Nazarnia vs Leon Aliu

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record11-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
The Unit MMATeamIron Team Reggio Emilia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Farshad NazarniaNow 1611
If they win+24→ 1635
If they lose-24→ 1587
Leon AliuNow 1612
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1523 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
6.32
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
10.11
TBD
Strike defense
38%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Farshad NazarniaLeon Aliu
150015501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
1 (20%)
Submission
4 (36%)
2 (40%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Farshad Nazarnia62%
Leon Aliu 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Farshad Nazarnia a 62% favorite over Leon Aliu in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leon Aliu's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1612), separated by just 1 points.

Farshad Nazarnia enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Farshad Nazarnia finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Leon Aliu 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.