Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe Bunes vs Rafael Dias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-9-0Record20-9-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
69"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamSD Training System

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Felipe BunesNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Rafael DiasNow 1546
If they win+12→ 1558
If they lose-12→ 1534

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.93
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
45%
Strike defense
TBD
1.13
Takedown avg.
TBD
22%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
40%
Takedown defense
TBD
2.26
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Felipe BunesRafael Dias
155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (15%)
KO/TKO
4 (20%)
9 (69%)
Submission
4 (20%)
2 (15%)
Decision
12 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Felipe Bunes60%
Rafael Dias 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Bunes a 60% favorite over Rafael Dias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1555 vs 1546), separated by just 9 points.

Felipe Bunes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Felipe Bunes finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Dias 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.