Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe Franco vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record23-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
76"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight250 lbs
Galpao da LutaTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Felipe FrancoNow 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.81
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
38%
Strike defense
56%
3.02
Takedown avg.
0.30
0%
Takedown accuracy
50%
88%
Takedown defense
82%
0
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Felipe FrancoJunior dos Santos
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
4 (40%)
Submission
1 (4%)
0 (0%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Felipe Franco62%
Junior dos Santos 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Franco a 62% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1642), separated by just 2 points.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Felipe Franco finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.