Felipe Franco vs Justin Wren
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record13-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
76"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight265 lbs
Galpao da LutaTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felipe FrancoJustin Wren
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Franco70%
Justin Wren 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Franco a 70% favorite over Justin Wren in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Wren's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1648), separated by just 4 points.
Justin Wren enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Felipe Franco finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Wren 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.