Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe Franco vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight257 lbs
Galpao da LutaTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Felipe FrancoNow 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
51%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
38%
Strike defense
55%
3.02
Takedown avg.
3.01
0%
Takedown accuracy
43%
88%
Takedown defense
88%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Felipe FrancoThomas Petersen
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
4 (40%)
Submission
1 (9%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Felipe Franco and Thomas Petersen within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1639), separated by just 5 points.

Felipe Franco finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Felipe Franco carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.