Combat Edge Intelligence

Fernie Garcia vs Jarno Errens

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record15-6-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
67"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam Thriving

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fernie GarciaNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576
Jarno ErrensNow 1595
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.29
34%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.29
49%
Strike defense
62%
0.28
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
50%
Takedown defense
33%
0.55
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Fernie GarciaJarno Errens
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
3 (20%)
3 (30%)
Submission
5 (33%)
6 (60%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Fernie Garcia and Jarno Errens within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1592 vs 1595), separated by just 3 points.

Fernie Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Fernie Garcia finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Jarno Errens 53%.

Jarno Errens carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.