Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Marshall vs Matt Veach

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record17-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamFinney's MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francis MarshallNow 1654
If they win+16→ 1670
If they lose-16→ 1638
Matt VeachNow 1654
If they win+16→ 1670
If they lose-16→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.39
Sig. strikes / min
1.12
33%
Strike accuracy
29%
4.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.91
54%
Strike defense
45%
2.86
Takedown avg.
3.64
45%
Takedown accuracy
38%
67%
Takedown defense
100%
0.61
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Francis MarshallMatt Veach
160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
5 (50%)
Submission
8 (47%)
4 (40%)
Decision
4 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Francis Marshall70%
Matt Veach 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 70% favorite over Matt Veach in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1654 vs 1654), separated by just 0 points.

Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Matt Veach 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.