Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Rivera vs Marcos Breno

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record15-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
68,0"ReachN/A
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
All In MMATeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francisco RiveraNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
Marcos BrenoNow 1612
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
68%
Strike defense
TBD
1.01
Takedown avg.
TBD
64%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
68%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.58
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Francisco RiveraMarcos Breno
16001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (63%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (33%)
6 (38%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcos Breno63%
Francisco Rivera 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Breno a 63% favorite over Francisco Rivera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1612), separated by just 1 points.

Marcos Breno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Francisco Rivera finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Breno 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.