Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Trevino vs Kēstin McClain

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record5-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
Macaco Gold TeamTeamRoughhouse Boxing

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francisco TrevinoNow 1622
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606
Kēstin McClainNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
64%
Strike defense
TBD
0.97
Takedown avg.
TBD
22%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
41%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Francisco TrevinoKēstin McClain
15501600165017002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
3 (60%)
4 (31%)
Submission
1 (20%)
5 (38%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Kēstin McClain70%
Francisco Trevino 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kēstin McClain a 70% favorite over Francisco Trevino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1623), separated by just 1 points.

Kēstin McClain enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Francisco Trevino finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Kēstin McClain 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.