Combat Edge Intelligence

Fraser Paterson vs Lucio Linhares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-0-0Record19-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
GriphouseTeamAlliance Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fraser PatersonNow 1564
If they win+23→ 1587
If they lose-25→ 1539
Lucio LinharesNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.99
TBD
Strike accuracy
23%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.47
TBD
Strike defense
35%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.86
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.86

Trajectory

Fraser PatersonLucio Linhares
150015502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (32%)
1 (50%)
Submission
8 (42%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Fraser Paterson81%
Lucio Linhares 19%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Fraser Paterson a 81% favorite over Lucio Linhares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1555), separated by just 9 points.

Fraser Paterson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Lucio Linhares 74%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.