Gable Steveson vs Naoya Ogawa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
74"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight253 lbs
La Bodega Fight ClubTeamUFO
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1628
If they lose-25→ 1580
If they win+25→ 1621
If they lose-23→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gable StevesonNaoya Ogawa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gable Steveson84%
Naoya Ogawa 16%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Gable Steveson a 84% favorite over Naoya Ogawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1596), separated by just 9 points.
Gable Steveson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Naoya Ogawa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gable Steveson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Naoya Ogawa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.