Gary Padilla vs Steven Hill
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record7-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Alliance MMATeamNovo BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gary PadillaSteven Hill
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steven Hill59%
Gary Padilla 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Steven Hill a 59% favorite over Gary Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gary Padilla's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1540), separated by just 9 points.
Gary Padilla enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Steven Hill enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gary Padilla finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Steven Hill 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.