Combat Edge Intelligence

Gaston Bolaños vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record14-9-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
69"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
CSATeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gaston BolañosNow 1596
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580
Tristan ConnellyNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.28
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
49%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
51%
Strike defense
51%
0.66
Takedown avg.
0.33
100%
Takedown accuracy
14%
43%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Gaston BolañosTristan Connelly
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (64%)
3 (33%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Gaston Bolaños70%
Tristan Connelly 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gaston Bolaños a 70% favorite over Tristan Connelly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tristan Connelly's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1597), separated by just 1 points.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gaston Bolaños finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.